What Are Bernie Sanders' Odds To Win?

Bernie Sanders is trailing Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. Yet he wants superdelegates to incline towards him and is targeting for a contested national convention in July to challenge Clinton, though he would need a great slice of good luck.

Campaigning till the last primary in the District of Columbia, mid-June, the Vermont senator hopes to gather as many delegates as possible at the party's convention in Philadelphia.

The challenge from Clinton is huge. Sanders has to win the favour of pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses, from among superdelegates, and from the Democratic elected and party leaders who can account for 30 percent of the 2,383 delegates needed to win.

Clinton's lead among pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses totals 1,645 to 1,318, says an analysis by The Associated Press. Her lead among superdelegates works out 520 to 39.

Hence, her overall lead works out 2,165 to 1,357, which puts her 91 percent of the way to winning the nomination.

Her victory is also roughly 3 million raw votes, with more than 12.2 million votes in primaries and caucuses so far, compared with 9.1 million for Sanders.

However, they do not include Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Washington, and Wyoming. These are caucus states in which delegate equivalents, not raw votes, were tabulated. Four of those six states were won by Sanders.

Still, Clinton is 218 delegates short. The contests in May offer a total of 235 delegates, including in states such as Oregon, where Sanders thinks he might win. Democrats tend to award delegates in proportion to their share of the vote. Thus, even the runner-up----or the loser, if you will---gets some votes. Hence, Clinton may not win all 235 in May.

It is likely that she will split the delegates and get set to reach track of 2,383 in early June.

If Clinton does better than expected in the May contests, she might be able to get more superdelegate supporters.

On the other hand, Sanders would require about 82 percent of the other delegates and uncommitted superdelegates, which is not possible unless Clinton loses every remaining state with 20 percent or less of the vote. Sanders has managed it in just three small, less diverse caucus states: Alaska, Utah and his home state of Vermont.

What then are the odds for Sanders' win?

It seems fairly clear. The maths tell their own story.